(derekbaker)

Hard-working Americans, White Americans

We know Hillary's going to win West Virginia today — but it will be interesting if enough superdelegates continue to announce for Obama today or tomorrow to keep the total delegate spread the same.

I was bothered, however, by listening to a BBC World News radio report this morning from West Virginia in which a number of primary voters overtly said Obama couldn't beat McCain in November because Obama is black. (He's also half-white, but no one seems to remember this, including the media.) Of course, none of these people themselves said they wouldn't support him because he was black, only that "no one they know" will, so they want Hillary to get the nomination.

On the other hand, maybe we've reached an inflection point in American society, as much in West Virginia as elsewhere. Perhaps the Bradley effect is no longer in effect? Or even has been reversed?

In 1982, polls in the California governor race showed the black mayor of Los Angeles with a double-digit lead over his white opponent, George Deukmejian, but Bradley lost the election. This and similar poll/election disparities between white and black candidates led people to discuss a "Bradley effect" in polling, wherein likely voters would say to a pollster they were willing to vote for a black candidate, but in the voting booth wouldn't. No one could actually prove this was what was going on, but the Bradley effect entered the popular culture as a sign that racism was alive and well, at least covertly in the privacy of the voting booth.

But that was a generation ago. I'd like to think that we've moved enough as a society that, today, we might even see a reverse Bradley effect in the voting booth come November. By which I mean that poll respondents may have a lower opinion of their neighbors' fair-mindedness than they have themselves. In other words, I'm willing to suspect that white voters may be more willing to vote for a white candidate than they think they're neighbors are — but in the privacy of the voting booth, they can.

Given the advantage the Clintons have had in West Virginia elections since the 1990s, I don't think Hillary winning there today is necessarily a sign or result of racism among Democrats in West Virginia. And in the general election, it's hard to say. The governor, both senators, and two of its three Congressional representatives are all Democrats. It was the only southern state to vote for Michael Dukakis in 1988, and went for Bill Clinton by large majorities in his two elections. But it also voted twice for George W. Bush — and in 2004 by an even larger margin than in 2000.

None of those races were, at least very much, about race. Unfortunately, the latest polling from West Virginia does show Clinton beating McCain there as of today, but also shows McCain beating Obama. That's not necessarily racism at work — it could just be familiarity. And a lot could change between now and November. In fact, I hope it does.

Labels: politics

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